From the page · 16 passages with claims
"We have come to acknowledge a different arrangement beneath Earth's major ocean-terminating glaciers. Satellite observations demonstrate the existence of a 'grounding zone,' sometimes kilometers wide, where warm ocean water is reaching deep underneath the ice sheets and causing vigorous melting." (Corroborated, claim 5)
Thwaites Glacier is in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector of West Antarctica, which accounts for roughly one-third of the mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. (Corroborated, claim 6) In recent decades, Thwaites has undergone rapid retreat and thinning, but scientists have been struggling to reconcile ice sheet models that show slower movement with satellite observations that show substantial ice flow acceleration. (Unverified, claim 7)
The UC Irvine-led team worked to calibrate ice sheet models against observations spanning more than 20 years. (Unverified, claim 8) Using synthetic aperture radar readings from the Finnish ICEYE satellite constellation, the researchers have been able to detect kilometer-scale fluctuations in the grounding zone along the main trunk of Thwaites. (Unverified, claim 9) The data indicate that seawater penetrates several kilometers beneath grounded ice and lifts it during tidal cycles, flushing the ice with pressurized, warm seawater being pushed to the Antarctic coastline by currents that have been altered by climate change. (Corroborated, claim 10)
According to Poinelli, a NASA JPL research affiliate who is now a project scientist at UCLA, this study showed that grounding zone processes are causing accelerated detachment of Thwaites Glacier from stabilizing ridges, leading to more rapid ice flow and deterioration. (Not auto-checked, claim 11) "The Thwaites main trunk is being temporarily stabilized by the Mouginot Ridge," he said. (Unverified, claim 12) "Once that ridge is unpinned, the glacier will continually retreat across a predominantly retrograde seafloor toward its next topographic high, the South Ridge." (Unverified, claim 13)
Poinelli said that computer simulations that factor in a 4–6-kilometer grounding zone (2.5–3.7 miles) predict a 60% probability of unpinning the Mouginot Ridge by the end of the century. (Not auto-checked, claim 14) "When you factor in key physical processes and calibrate against historical observations, you gain a reliable pathway for narrowing uncertainty in projections," he said.
"Most projections to date have struggled to match the rapidity of the mass loss because of missing physics; our new model with more complete physics is able to match the record and then produces projections that are twice as large as before. (Unverified, claim 16) These results predict greater risk of and exposure to coastal flooding than anticipated in the coming decades." (Unverified, claim 17)
Mattia Poinelli et al., Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model, Nature Communications (2026). (Unverified, claim 18) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1
Provided by University of California, Irvine (Corroborated, claim 19)
Bachelor's in mathematical biology, Master's in creative writing. (Unverified, claim 20) Well-traveled with unique perspectives on science and language. Full profile →
An ice-sheet model incorporating seawater intrusion across Thwaites Glacier’s grounding zone projects up to 30 mm of sea-level rise by 2100, twice previous estimates, without additional warming. (3 claims: 3 Unverified) Warm water beneath grounded ice accelerates melting and retreat; simulations estimate a 60% probability of detachment from a stabilizing ridge by 2100. (3 claims: 2 Corroborated, 1 Unverified)
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